The 2016 MLB Draft is a fascinating case study in the unpredictable nature of scouting and the draft process. Ten years later, it's a story of missed opportunities, surprising successes, and the impact of player development. The draft class, initially dismissed as one of the worst in recent memory, has produced a mix of All-Stars, trade fodder, and hidden gems. This redraft analysis delves into the key players and the factors that shaped their careers, offering a unique perspective on the draft's impact on the sport.
The Initial Disappointment
The 2016 draft was met with skepticism from scouts, who questioned the quality of the top prospects. The strongest demographic, high school pitchers, was seen as risky, while the best college hitters and arms failed to live up to expectations. The top five selections, in particular, were described as uncertain and among the worst in recent history. This initial perception set the stage for a draft that would surprise and delight in equal measure.
The Redraft: A New Perspective
In this redraft, we reevaluate the 2016 class, focusing on the players who signed pro contracts and their subsequent careers. The results are intriguing, to say the least.
Will Smith, C, Louisville
Smith, the 32nd overall pick by the Dodgers, was initially overlooked due to his lack of track record. However, his development into a three-time All-Star and World Series champion showcases the potential of patient development. His 11th-inning home run in Game Seven of the 2025 World Series is a testament to his impact. In contrast, Mickey Moniak, the actual first-round pick, struggled to find regular playing time until mid-2023, highlighting the draft's unpredictability.
Bo Bichette, SS, Lakewood HS
Bichette, the second-round pick by the Blue Jays, faced questions about his swing and quickness. Despite these concerns, he earned an over-slot bonus and went on to make two All-Star teams. His success contrasts with Nick Senzel, the actual pick, who never fully lived up to his potential due to injuries and position changes.
Pete Alonso, 1B, Florida
Alonso, the second-round pick by the Mets, was a power-hitting first baseman with a right-handed swing. His lack of athleticism and profile as a righty-hitting first baseman knocked him down in the draft. However, he arrived at Citi Field with a rookie-record 53 homers and made five All-Star Games. Ian Anderson, the actual pick, struggled with injuries but pitched in the World Series.
Bryan Reynolds, OF, Vanderbilt
Reynolds, the second-round pick by the Giants, was a three-year star for the Commodores and the best hitter on Vanderbilt's 2014 College World Series championship club. He has earned two All-Star Game nods with the Pirates. Riley Pint, the actual pick, never lived up to his high school fastball comparisons.
Corbin Burnes, RHP, St. Mary's
Burnes, the 111th overall pick by the Brewers, was a steal. He won the 2021 National League Cy Young Award and made four straight All-Star Games. Corey Ray, the actual pick, struggled to make consistent contact as a pro.
Shane Bieber, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Bieber, the fourth-round pick by the Cleveland, boosted his velocity and breaking pitches, leading to All-Star nods and a Cy Young Award. A.J. Puk, the actual pick, battled inconsistency and injuries.
Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS
Luzardo, the third-round pick by the Nationals, created excitement with his fastball but needed Tommy John surgery. He has developed into one of the best southpaws in the Majors. Braxton Garrett, the actual pick, has shown flashes but struggled with health.
Zac Gallen, RHP, North Carolina
Gallen, the third-round pick by the Cardinals, exceeded expectations as a solid mid-rotation starter. Cal Quantrill, the actual pick, missed his junior season due to injury.
Tommy Edman, SS, Stanford
Edman, the sixth-round pick by the Cardinals, has won a Gold Glove and an NL Championship Series MVP award. Scouts loved Matt Manning's potential, but injuries stunted his pro career.
Brandon Marsh, OF, Buford (Ga.) HS
Marsh, the second-round pick by the Angels, raised his baseball profile as a senior and impressed with his athleticism. He has earned his first All-Star Game berth. Zack Collins, the actual pick, lacked hitting ability and receiving skills.
Michael King, RHP, Boston College
King, the 12th-round pick by the Marlins, has shown potential. Kyle Lewis, the actual pick, has struggled with injuries.
Sean Murphy, C, Wright State
Murphy, the third-round pick by the Athletics, has shown promise. Jay Groome, the actual pick, has faced challenges.
David Bednar, RHP, Lafayette
Bednar, the 35th-round pick by the Padres, has become a two-time All-Star. Josh Lowe, the actual pick, has struggled.
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Mississippi State
Lowe, the 13th-round pick by the Rays, has shown potential. Will Benson, the actual pick, has faced challenges.
Aaron Civale, RHP, Northeastern
Civale, the third-round pick by the Indians, has shown promise. Alex Kirilloff, the actual pick, has struggled.
Cole Ragans, LHP, North Florida Christian HS
Ragans, the first-round pick by the Rangers, has shown potential. Matt Thaiss, the actual pick, has struggled.
Austin Hays, OF, Jacksonville
Hays, the third-round pick by the Orioles, has shown potential. Forrest Whitley, the actual pick, has faced challenges.
Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford
Quantrill, the first-round pick by the Padres, has carved out a career as a back-of-the-rotation option. Blake Rutherford, the actual pick, has struggled.
Gavin Lux, SS, Indian Trail HS
Lux, the first-round pick by the Dodgers, has won World Series rings. Justin Dunn, the actual pick, has faced challenges.
Dean Kremer, RHP, Nevada-Las Vegas
Kremer, the 14th-round pick by the Dodgers, has won World Series rings. T.J. Zeuch, the actual pick, has faced challenges.
Tony Gonsolin, RHP, St. Mary's
Gonsolin, the ninth-round pick by the Dodgers, has won World Series rings. Will Craig, the actual pick, has struggled.
Luke Raley, OF, Lake Erie (Ohio)
Raley, the seventh-round pick by the Dodgers, has won World Series rings. Delvin Pérez, the actual pick, has shown potential.
Eric Lauer, LHP, Kent State
Lauer, the first-round pick by the Padres, has shown promise. Hudson Potts, the actual pick, has faced challenges.
Dustin May, RHP, Northwest HS
May, the third-round pick by the Dodgers, has won World Series rings. Cody Sedlock, the actual pick, has faced challenges.
Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence (Ala.) HS
Garrett, the first-round pick by the Marlins, has shown flashes. Zack Burdi, the actual pick, has struggled.
Alex Call, OF, Ball State
Call, the third-round pick by the White Sox, has shown potential. Anthony Kay, the actual pick, has faced challenges.
Zach McKinstry, SS, Central Michigan
McKinstry, the 33rd-round pick by the Dodgers, has shown potential. Carter Kieboom, the actual pick, has struggled.
Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon HS
Moniak, the first-round pick by the Phillies, has shown potential. Dane Dunning, the actual pick, has faced challenges.
Anthony Bender, RHP, Santa Rosa (Calif.) JC
Bender, the 20th-round pick by the Royals, has shown potential. Sean Murphy, the actual pick, has shown promise.
Griffin Jax, RHP, Air Force
Jax, the third-round pick by the Twins, has shown potential. Will Smith, the actual pick, has won All-Star Games.
Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa HS
Anderson, the first-round pick by the Braves, has pitched in the World Series. Dylan Carlson, the actual pick, has shown potential.
Rico Garcia, RHP, Hawaii Pacific
Garcia, the 30th-round pick by the Rockies, has shown potential. Dakota Hudson, the actual pick, has faced challenges.
In conclusion, the 2016 MLB Draft is a testament to the unpredictable nature of scouting and the impact of player development. The redraft analysis highlights the potential of overlooked prospects and the challenges faced by others. It serves as a reminder that the draft is not just about the initial selection but also about the journey of each player and the factors that shape their careers.
